Hurricane center warns about holiday weekend weather

The chances that a tropical system will develop over the next five days was increased to 60 percent by the National Hurricane Center.

The special tropical update, which was issued at 7:40 p.m., said a newly formed area of low pressure has emerged a few hundred miles northeast of the Bahamas.

The system is supposed to move slowly west-northwest toward the southeastern U.S. That will put it into warmer waters and weaker wind shear, which could allow it to more fully develop.

Center forecasters also increased the chance of development through 48 hours to 30 percent.

The next tropical outlook will be issued by 9 a.m. Thursday.

There is no guarantee something will form.

“To get a defined depression we need a little bit better circulation to happen, and that very well could happen as we head into the holiday weekend,” said Dan Kottlowski, a hurricane expert with AccuWeather. “The expectation now is that it will track northwest from the northern Bahamas and be off the coast of Jacksonville Friday or Saturday.”

From there, it could head north, or stall out, spinning for a while before moving out to sea, Kottlowski said.

“There is definitely a chance it could be a tropical storm, but there’s still a lot of uncertainty and the process in this case takes a long time,” he said.

No forecasters were expecting the system to gain much strength, but it was dubbed Invest 91-L, meaning it has the potential to gain tropical characteristics. The National Hurricane Center numbers areas to “investigate” beginning with 90. The “L” represents the North Atlantic basin. Invest 90-L became Hurricane Alex in January.

Despite the questionable future of 91-L, Florida’s National Weather Service forecasting offices began taking note of the system Wednesday, distributing short forecasts on potential Memorial Day weekend weather.

For South Florida, the system may prove a boon. Depending on its location, Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade counties could end up in the southwest quadrant of the storm where a more westerly flow would mean drier air.

“Sometimes you get dry air that wraps into these things and it may even reduce the storms a little for us,” Ippoliti said. “The north side of the system, if it comes ashore, would bring the heavier rain toward Myrtle Beach and the Outer Banks.”

Cox Media Group