CHARLOTTE — Meteorologists at Colorado State University have lowered their forecast for how many tropical systems the Atlantic Basin could see for the 2026 hurricane season.
>>>LINK: WSOC’s Tracking the Tropics page
The updated tropical season outlook now includes four hurricanes and one major hurricane developing this season. Their initial tropical season forecast predicted six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.
The biggest driver for the lowering of their seasonal outlook is a powerful El Niño, which is developing in the Pacific. This ocean pattern often drives higher wind shear in the Atlantic, which makes it difficult for hurricanes to form.
It has been a quiet start to hurricane season thus far, though we are now just approaching the climatological peak of activity, which occurs in early September.
The National Hurricane Center has been monitoring two areas of interest for possible tropical development over the past week. The first area to watch is over the Northeast Gulf and Southeast coast, where a weak area of lower pressure could develop in the next seven days. The NHC only has it at a 20% chance of development. Right now, some tropical showers could be possible along the coastline, but no big impacts are expected.
Another area to watch is a tropical wave that is coming off the coast of Africa. This system has a 10% chance of development as it moves west through the Atlantic, though the environment it’s moving into isn’t the most conducive for it to strengthen.
While neither of these tropical systems shows much promise of developing, it only takes one storm to make it an impactful season. Stay with Severe Weather Team 9 throughout hurricane season to stay on top of the latest updates on all tropical activity.