SOUTH CAROLINA — Republican Darline Graham and Democrat Annie Andrews are locked in a close race for South Carolina’s U.S. Senate seat ahead of their first debate on Sunday.
An Insider Advantage poll shows Graham holding 46% of the vote, with Andrews close behind at 45%.
Political experts generally view South Carolina as a solid Republican state, making the narrow margin unusual for a statewide contest.
Scott Huffmon, a political scientist at Winthrop University, said statewide races in the state typically lean much further toward the Republican candidate.
“Well, in the modern times with the Republican dominance of the past 15, 20 years in South Carolina, seeing a statewide election that you think is within single digits is kind of surprising,” Huffmon said. “We expect kind of a 10-point baseline.”
The Insider Advantage poll surveyed 1,200 likely voters on Sept. 28 and Sept. 29. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.
Graham was appointed to the Senate seat following the death of her brother, Sen. Lindsey Graham.
While she gained wide Republican backing and an endorsement from the president, Huffmon pointed to division within conservative ranks and challenges with unaligned voters.
“Lindsey Graham passes, his sister becomes the nominee, that kind of angered some of the most conservative people within the party,” Huffmon said. “Trump overall is not that popular with independents who are needed if they lean conservative.”
Andrews, a medical doctor and fellow political newcomer, faces strategic trade-offs in candidate messaging.
Huffmon said Graham will benefit by focusing on culture war issues such as abortion and transgender topics, whereas Andrews should push discussions on prices and the economy.
Well, both sides have an area where their footing is more solid and where their footing is weaker,” Huffmon said. “Everything about this race is historic.”
Huffmon noted that an Andrews victory depends on strong Democratic turnout, securing independent voters and lower Republican participation.
“Andrews still has that uphill climb as long as Republicans turn out,” Huffmon said.
The current polling landscape mirrors the 2020 South Carolina Senate election between Lindsey Graham and Democrat Jaime Harrison.
Multiple surveys in 2020 indicated a tight race before Lindsey Graham won by more than 10 percentage points.
Graham and Andrews are scheduled to hold their first debate on Sunday. Early voting in South Carolina begins Oct. 19 ahead of Election Day on Nov. 3.
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