‘Safeguarding lives’: NOAA releases new hurricane season forecast for 2025

NOAA has updated its forecast for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season, predicting 13-18 named storms, of which 5-9 could become hurricanes, including 2-5 major hurricanes.

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The updated forecast comes as the season enters its historical peak, with atmospheric and oceanic conditions favoring above-normal activity, NOAA officials stated Thursday in a news release. The season runs from June 1 to November 30, and four named storms have already formed.

“NOAA stands ready to provide the forecasts and warnings that are vital for safeguarding lives, property, and communities,” said Acting NOAA Administrator Laura Grimm, in a news release.

“No two storms are alike,” said NOAA’s National Weather Service Director Ken Graham. “Every storm presents unique, life-threatening hazards that can impact people in both coastal and inland communities.”

The likelihood of above-normal activity is 50%, with a 35% chance of a near-normal season and a 15% chance of a below-normal season.

This prediction aligns with NOAA’s initial outlook issued in May.So far, the season has produced four named tropical storms, including Tropical Storm Chantal, which made landfall in the Carolinas and caused high winds and deadly flooding during the Independence Day holiday weekend.

Atlantic basin tropical storm activity is expected to be elevated due to warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures and an active West African Monsoon.

ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue, meaning there is neither an El Nino nor La Nina to influence this season’s storm activity.NOAA’s outlook for a below-average Eastern Pacific season remains on track, with 12-18 named storms predicted, despite a rapid start with nine named storms.

As the season progresses, NOAA emphasizes the importance of preparation, urging communities to have plans in place before storms threaten. The updated outlook serves as a call to action to prepare in advance.

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