Harvard professor provides NCSBE with sworn affidavit

A Harvard professor and elections expert provided the North Carolina State Board of Elections with a sworn affidavit analyzing absentee ballots in the 9th Congressional District.

[ALSO READ: US House District 9 race investigation: How we got here]

Professor Stephen Ansolabehere found the rate at which voters didn't return absentee ballots in Bladen County is 2.5 times the rate elsewhere in the 9th District and North Carolina as a whole. For Robeson County, the rate is three times higher.

"The rates at which voters did not return their absentee ballots and did not otherwise vote in these counties is also much higher than elsewhere in CD 9 and North Carolina," Ansolabehere wrote. "Statistical tests show that these deviations are extremely unlikely to have arisen by chance."

In the over 40-page report, Ansolabehere described the 9th Congressional District as an outlier compared with the rest of the state for unreturned absentee by mail ballots.

"Plausible alternative explanations having to do with the nature of the electorate in these counties cannot account for the extremely high non-return rates in Bladen and Robeson counties," he wrote. "Rather, every group of voters who requested absentee mail ballots seems to have encountered substantial obstacles to submitting an accepted absentee mail ballot. These patterns are consistent with allegations of interference with the absentee mail ballot process."

Bladen County is home to more than 33,000 people.

Past coverage:

• Amid fraud probe, an election redo might require new primary for 9th District
• District 9 candidate Mark Harris wanted to hire McCrae Dowless, Washington Post reports
• NC State Board of Elections Chairman resigns amid controversy
• Who is McCrae Dowless, man who appears to be center of 9th District investigation?
• Photo shows Mark Harris and man at center of election fraud investigation together
• Amid fraud probe, an election redo might require new primary for 9th District
• Dan McCready releases 10 questions for Mark Harris
• Dan McCready withdraws concession to Mark Harris in District 9 race
• 'Things have gotten way out of hand': Bladen Co. BOE vice chair resigns
• NC GOP leader calls for new 9th District election if early voting numbers were leaked
• US House District 9 race investigation: How we got here
• Former NC Gov. Pat McCrory weighs in on U.S. House District 9 investigation
• State officials in Bladen County investigating U.S. House District 9 election
• Channel 9 uncovers similarities between absentee ballots in U.S. House District 9 race
• Second woman claims she was paid to pick up ballots in U.S. House District 9 race

The county is split between two congressional districts -- the 7th District and the now controversial 9th. For the report, Ansolabehere reviewed data for Robeson County and the part of Bladen County that sits in the 9th District.

Looking at the portion of Bladen in the 9th District and Robeson County, Ansolabehere reports 3,680 people requested absentee ballots. According to Ansolabehere, 1,639 people never returned their mail ballots. Of those 1,639 people, 1,169 people did not vote in the 2018 election.

"These figures likely understate the magnitude of any potential interference with absentee mail ballots, as they do not incorporate other potential irregularities," Ansolabehere wrote.

Mark Harris finished ahead of Dan McCready by 905 votes. The race has not been certified, pending the investigation.

An evidentiary hearing is scheduled for Jan. 11.

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